Abu Yahya's definitions
*noun*; global economic collapse; in the USA, this began in 1929 and persisted to 1939; most other industrialized countries emerged from the Depression earlier.
During the Great Depression, unemployment reached over 25% in the USA, and those who had jobs suffered severe wage cuts. The index of industrial output fell over 53% from its high in July '29, while trade and capital markets plummeted to mere fractions of their former levels.
*What Happened*
_____________________________________
Many people imagine that the Stock Market Crash (Oct '29) and the Great Depression are the same thing. However, it took another three years for employment, bank failures, and declining industrial output to run its course.
In 1929 the USA had 25,000 banks. By 1933, 10,000 had either failed or been merged with another to avoid failure. At this time there was no FDIC, so depositors mostly lost their money.
Another phenomenon was plunging prices: the consumer price index fell 25% during the first four years. For businesses, this was a disaster, and forced them to lay off millions.
The Great Depression made farms in much of the Southwest unviable; ruined farmers fled to California or Washington, and their abandoned farms succumbed to the Dust Bowl. This was the single largest ecological disaster in recorded history.
*How It Happened*
_____________________________________
There are basically three main explanations for the Great Depression.
1. During the 1920's, there was a huge and growing disparity between rich and poor. The incomes of the great majority rose much more slowly than productivity, but this was masked by increased borrowing. People were able to borrow because the market value of their assets was larger than what they owed; but when a rash of defaults occurred, then the market value of assets plummeted, and people owed more than their assets were worth. Businesses had to lay off workers, which further reduced aggregate demand.
2. The Great Depression began as another minor downturn, but was made much worse by the failure of the Federal Reserve to respond adequately (see Milton Friedman & Anna Schwartz). While the Fed reduced interest rates, prices fell even faster, so real interest rates soared. This made a quick recovery impossible.
3. The financial markets (combined with Fed supervision) distributed capital badly; for example, speculative ventures in growing wheat in the Great American Desert, real estate in Florida, and so on. When this arrangement of productive resources failed, it constituted an extremely large technology shock. Subsequent policy intervention tended to withhold capital and labor from the most productive enterprises, making the depression deeper.
(Explanation 3 is the New Classical economics explanation; see Harold Cole & Lee Ohanian.)
*Roosevelt Administration*
_____________________________________
Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected by a landslide in 1932, and inaugurated 4 March 1933. The White House immediately used emergency powers to close, restructure, and re-open the nation's banks. During the first 100 days of the FDR administration, Congress passed the New Deal which greatly eased the impact of the Depression on the hardest hit.
The New Deal did not significantly hasten the end of the Great Depression, because it was too small to provide a meaningful fiscal stimulus. However, it did introduce many important programs to help those affected by poverty. The Depression had ended in most of the world by 1937; the US was mostly recovered by 1939, when World War 2 broke out.
During the Great Depression, unemployment reached over 25% in the USA, and those who had jobs suffered severe wage cuts. The index of industrial output fell over 53% from its high in July '29, while trade and capital markets plummeted to mere fractions of their former levels.
*What Happened*
_____________________________________
Many people imagine that the Stock Market Crash (Oct '29) and the Great Depression are the same thing. However, it took another three years for employment, bank failures, and declining industrial output to run its course.
In 1929 the USA had 25,000 banks. By 1933, 10,000 had either failed or been merged with another to avoid failure. At this time there was no FDIC, so depositors mostly lost their money.
Another phenomenon was plunging prices: the consumer price index fell 25% during the first four years. For businesses, this was a disaster, and forced them to lay off millions.
The Great Depression made farms in much of the Southwest unviable; ruined farmers fled to California or Washington, and their abandoned farms succumbed to the Dust Bowl. This was the single largest ecological disaster in recorded history.
*How It Happened*
_____________________________________
There are basically three main explanations for the Great Depression.
1. During the 1920's, there was a huge and growing disparity between rich and poor. The incomes of the great majority rose much more slowly than productivity, but this was masked by increased borrowing. People were able to borrow because the market value of their assets was larger than what they owed; but when a rash of defaults occurred, then the market value of assets plummeted, and people owed more than their assets were worth. Businesses had to lay off workers, which further reduced aggregate demand.
2. The Great Depression began as another minor downturn, but was made much worse by the failure of the Federal Reserve to respond adequately (see Milton Friedman & Anna Schwartz). While the Fed reduced interest rates, prices fell even faster, so real interest rates soared. This made a quick recovery impossible.
3. The financial markets (combined with Fed supervision) distributed capital badly; for example, speculative ventures in growing wheat in the Great American Desert, real estate in Florida, and so on. When this arrangement of productive resources failed, it constituted an extremely large technology shock. Subsequent policy intervention tended to withhold capital and labor from the most productive enterprises, making the depression deeper.
(Explanation 3 is the New Classical economics explanation; see Harold Cole & Lee Ohanian.)
*Roosevelt Administration*
_____________________________________
Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected by a landslide in 1932, and inaugurated 4 March 1933. The White House immediately used emergency powers to close, restructure, and re-open the nation's banks. During the first 100 days of the FDR administration, Congress passed the New Deal which greatly eased the impact of the Depression on the hardest hit.
The New Deal did not significantly hasten the end of the Great Depression, because it was too small to provide a meaningful fiscal stimulus. However, it did introduce many important programs to help those affected by poverty. The Depression had ended in most of the world by 1937; the US was mostly recovered by 1939, when World War 2 broke out.
The NBER business cycle chronology dates the start of the Great Depression in August 1929. For this reason many have said that the Depression started on Main Street and not Wall Street. Be that as it may, the stock market plummeted in October of 1929. The bursting of the speculative bubble had been achieved and the economy was now headed in an ominous direction.
Randall Parker, "An Overview of the Great Depression" (2002)
Randall Parker, "An Overview of the Great Depression" (2002)
by Abu Yahya March 6, 2009
Get the Great Depressionmug. (FINANCE) originally, a bond rated as not investment grade by a credit rating agency (e.g., Standard & Poor, Ernst & Young, or Moody's).
Later, a bond was a financial instrument deliberately created to have absurdly high levels of risk (of default), which was then priced in and "hedged" by a fund manager. Junk bonds are routinely used to finance leveraged buyouts.
Later, a bond was a financial instrument deliberately created to have absurdly high levels of risk (of default), which was then priced in and "hedged" by a fund manager. Junk bonds are routinely used to finance leveraged buyouts.
Michael Milken was the junk bond innovator who figured out how to make them an effective investment vehicle. Yes, he later went to jail for securities law violations.
by Abu Yahya September 1, 2010
Get the junk bondmug. In economics, a monetary policy in which the value of the local currency is determined by the foreign exchange markets, with some intervention by the government (or its allies) in the event of excessive or dangerous movements.
Usually the term is applied when the country ignores long term shifts in value, but intervenes directly to avoid crises.
Usually the term is applied when the country ignores long term shifts in value, but intervenes directly to avoid crises.
Most of the nations in the world have neither a hard peg nor floating currency, but something in between--a dirty float, in which trade is under some restrictions.
by abu yahya June 24, 2008
Get the dirty floatmug. title of book by John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) outlining the general concept of Keynesian economics. The book was published in 1936.
*Context*
______________________________
Prior to the Great Depression, opinions about how to properly manage the economy were dominated by Neoclassical economics, which advocated little government intervention. In particular, unemployment was regarded as the consequence of workers failing to accept wages sufficiently low to permit full employment.
During the Great Depression, unemployment soared to 25% in the USA and Germany. Economics had no advice to give to leaders anxious to do something, and none of the neoclassical predictions were coming true. The government of the UK commissioned J.M. Keynes to lead a commission of top British economists in a general review of economic theory; their finding were summarized by Keynes in *The General Theory*.
*The Findings*
______________________________
The Cambridge team did not have access to statistics of national income and product accounting (NIPA). They did have some data on unemployment and prices, especially from the USA.
Keynes also identified several inherent logical problems with neoclassical economic theory about saving and investment. The theory said that all economic output of an economy would tend to be consumed; all saving would be invested; and all workers would be employed, *provided wages fell low enough*.
Keynes noted the economic mechanism by which investment occurs has little to do with the existing rate of saving; both are influenced by interest rates, but other forces come into play (e.g., liquidity preference for saving, business opportunities and user cost for investment). Hence, aggregate demand can drift very far out of alignment with output (or potential output).
Another finding was that employment rates actually did not respond in a predictable way to the fall in wages. The US economy suffered periods when a reduction in the wage level lead to increases in employment, despite the assumption that workers would have withdrawn from the labor market.
Finally, Keynes proposed the use of monetary policy and fiscal policy for regulating business cycles.
*Context*
______________________________
Prior to the Great Depression, opinions about how to properly manage the economy were dominated by Neoclassical economics, which advocated little government intervention. In particular, unemployment was regarded as the consequence of workers failing to accept wages sufficiently low to permit full employment.
During the Great Depression, unemployment soared to 25% in the USA and Germany. Economics had no advice to give to leaders anxious to do something, and none of the neoclassical predictions were coming true. The government of the UK commissioned J.M. Keynes to lead a commission of top British economists in a general review of economic theory; their finding were summarized by Keynes in *The General Theory*.
*The Findings*
______________________________
The Cambridge team did not have access to statistics of national income and product accounting (NIPA). They did have some data on unemployment and prices, especially from the USA.
Keynes also identified several inherent logical problems with neoclassical economic theory about saving and investment. The theory said that all economic output of an economy would tend to be consumed; all saving would be invested; and all workers would be employed, *provided wages fell low enough*.
Keynes noted the economic mechanism by which investment occurs has little to do with the existing rate of saving; both are influenced by interest rates, but other forces come into play (e.g., liquidity preference for saving, business opportunities and user cost for investment). Hence, aggregate demand can drift very far out of alignment with output (or potential output).
Another finding was that employment rates actually did not respond in a predictable way to the fall in wages. The US economy suffered periods when a reduction in the wage level lead to increases in employment, despite the assumption that workers would have withdrawn from the labor market.
Finally, Keynes proposed the use of monetary policy and fiscal policy for regulating business cycles.
The *The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money* completely shook up the world of economic policy. Hereafter, governments took responsibility for economic conditions or they lost power.
by Abu Yahya March 3, 2009
Get the The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Moneymug. *noun*; series of programs enacted by the administration of Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945) in response to the Great Depression. This definition refers to the New Deal in US history (as opposed to the current "New Deal" in Great Britain).
The main architects of the New Deal were Harry Hopkins, Henry A. Wallace, and Harold L. Ickes. The chief prigrams were:
--- The Works Progress Administration (WPA);
--- the Public Works Administration (PWA);
--- the Agricultural Adjustment Administration (AAA).
These were set up to address industrial and farming failures.
Other programs addressed a long-standing need:
--- the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC);
--- the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), which introduced electrical power infrastructure to much of the impoverished rural South;
--- the Civil Works Administration (CWA), which supplied electrical power generation;
--- the Federal Depository Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which provides insurance for bank accounts;
--- the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC);
--- the Social Security Administration (SSA);
Legislation included:
--- the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA), or Wagner Act, which gave most workers the right to organize;
--- the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA), which was struck down in 1935 by the US Supreme Court;
--- the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), which set basic working standards.
The New Deal's main impact was to establish basic protections for workers, consumers, and farmers. While some of these protections could have been better designed, they perform an indispensable function. In terms of actual fiscal policy, the New Deal was far too small to hasten the end of the Great Depression itself.
The main architects of the New Deal were Harry Hopkins, Henry A. Wallace, and Harold L. Ickes. The chief prigrams were:
--- The Works Progress Administration (WPA);
--- the Public Works Administration (PWA);
--- the Agricultural Adjustment Administration (AAA).
These were set up to address industrial and farming failures.
Other programs addressed a long-standing need:
--- the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC);
--- the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), which introduced electrical power infrastructure to much of the impoverished rural South;
--- the Civil Works Administration (CWA), which supplied electrical power generation;
--- the Federal Depository Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which provides insurance for bank accounts;
--- the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC);
--- the Social Security Administration (SSA);
Legislation included:
--- the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA), or Wagner Act, which gave most workers the right to organize;
--- the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA), which was struck down in 1935 by the US Supreme Court;
--- the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), which set basic working standards.
The New Deal's main impact was to establish basic protections for workers, consumers, and farmers. While some of these protections could have been better designed, they perform an indispensable function. In terms of actual fiscal policy, the New Deal was far too small to hasten the end of the Great Depression itself.
by Abu Yahya March 6, 2009
Get the New Dealmug. (FINANCE) when a private equity fund sells a company it has taken private to another fund. Usually financed with junk bonds.
The secondary buyout became a hot trend in the period 2005-2008, partly because other segments of the equities markets were doing so poorly. The hedge funds were willing to buy the junk bonds because they believed they had mastered the risk control; but the deals themselves were absurd.
The whole purpose of a leveraged buyout is to restructure the target company so profits from its resale can be used to pay for the deal. But if a capital management firm has already issued the junk bonds to finance a restructuring, there's little hope of another takeover artist squeezing any more profit out of restructuring. The whole point is to scam the markets.
The secondary buyout became a hot trend in the period 2005-2008, partly because other segments of the equities markets were doing so poorly. The hedge funds were willing to buy the junk bonds because they believed they had mastered the risk control; but the deals themselves were absurd.
The whole purpose of a leveraged buyout is to restructure the target company so profits from its resale can be used to pay for the deal. But if a capital management firm has already issued the junk bonds to finance a restructuring, there's little hope of another takeover artist squeezing any more profit out of restructuring. The whole point is to scam the markets.
The sudden popularity of the secondary buyout never made any sense, except as a scam. As a vehicle for peddling exotic financial derivatives, it was mildly interesting, but there was no common sense to the idea of two consecutive takeover artists doing LBO's of the same company. One of them had to be incompetent for there to be any reason for it.
by Abu Yahya September 1, 2010
Get the secondary buyoutmug. (ECONOMICS) crisis created when a government or firm cannot pay its obligations in any reasonable time frame. Often confused with illiquidity, which is a when an entity suffers a temporary shortage of cash.
When a firm has assets that are greater than liabilities, it is solvent. In a lot of cases, the management of a firm runs out of ways to make money with the assets it has, so it "invests" in poor quality assets with high risk of default (for example, by lending money to borrowers using inflated housing prices as collateral).
When a firm has assets that are greater than liabilities, it is solvent. In a lot of cases, the management of a firm runs out of ways to make money with the assets it has, so it "invests" in poor quality assets with high risk of default (for example, by lending money to borrowers using inflated housing prices as collateral).
Most of the time, insolvency is the result of corrupt or feckless management. In a few cases, however, it can be the result of a vicious cycle in which a well-managed company's customers all become insolvent first.
by Abu Yahya May 5, 2010
Get the insolvencymug.